IMPLEMENTATION OF SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD FOR NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION FORECASTING
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24867/05BE23IvezicKeywords:
Forecast of the natural gas consumption, Simple exponential smoothing methodAbstract
In this paper main focus is on forecast of natural gas consumption, which is nowadays increasingly used for heating objects, especially residential, because of its minimal contamination of natural environment. First, it is shown the theoretical introduction and given setting of the problem, then mathematical model for forecast based on simple exponential smoothing method was formed. Numerical verification of mathematical model is performed on simple test gas network. In that purpose, the model for forecast was developed in the C# programming language. The obtained results are presented through diagrams on the basis of which the analysis is performed.
References
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3. E.Ostertagova, O.Ostertag: The Simple Exponential Smoothing Model, The 4th International Conference on Modelling of Mechanical and Mechatronic Systems, Košice, September 2011, pp. 380-384
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2. S.R.Vitullo, R.H.Brown, G.F.Corliss, B.M.Marx: Mathematical Models for Natural Gas Forecasting; Canadian Applied Mathematical Quarterly, University of Alberta, Alberta, 2009, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 807-827
3. E.Ostertagova, O.Ostertag: The Simple Exponential Smoothing Model, The 4th International Conference on Modelling of Mechanical and Mechatronic Systems, Košice, September 2011, pp. 380-384
4. E.Ostertagova, O.Ostertag: Forecasting using simple exponential smoothing method; Acta Electrotechnica et Informatica, 2012, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 62-66
5. H.N.Akouemo, R.J.Povinelli: Probabilistic anomaly detection in natural gas time series data; International Journal of Forecasting, July-September 2016, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 948-956.
6. W.A.W.Abu Bakar, R.Ali: Natural Gas, Department Of Chemistry, University Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia, August 2010, Page 6.
7. S.Kim, H.Kim: A new metric of absolute percentage error in intermittent demand forecasts; International Journal of Forecasting, July-September 2016, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 669-679
8. L.Y.Ren: Revised Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) on Errors from Simple Exponential Smoothing Methods for Independent Normal Time Series; The Journal of American Academy of Business, 2007, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 65-70
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Published
2019-11-03
Issue
Section
Electrotechnical and Computer Engineering
