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Electrotechnical and Computer Engineering

Vol. 39 No. 03 (2024): Proceedings of Faculty of Technical Sciences

LOAD FORECASTING USING ARMA METHOD

  • Andrej Ivičiak
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24867/26BE01Iviciak
Submitted
September 15, 2023
Published
2024-03-02

Abstract

The paper describes the types of load forecasts. Some methods for load forecast and factors that are important and affect its accuracy are described. In practical part of the work, a web application was developed  that uses the ARMA method for load forecasting based on historical electricity consmuption. The paper will present results of load forecast for some cases, where it will be possible to see how the selection of values of parametars and search interval affects the precision of load forecast.

References

G. Gross, F. D Galiana, Short-term forecasting, Proceedings of the IEEE, December 1987
Eugene A. Feinberg, Dora Genethliou, Load Forcasting, State University of New York, 2005
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autocorrelation, Autocorrelation, pristupljeno: jul 2023.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_autocorrelation_function, Partial autocorrelation function, pristupljeno: jul
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive%E2%80%93moving-average_model, Autoregressive – moving – average model, pristupljeno: jul 2023.